Working Papers

Sanctioning Venezuela

This paper presents a summary of the evidence on the economic effects of financial and oil sanctions on Venezuela between 2017 and 2020. This paper is a chapter of my upcoming book, Scorched Earth: The Political Economy of Venezuela’s Collapse, 2012-2020.

Sanciones y producción petrolera: evidencia de la Faja Petrolífera del Orinoco

En esta investigación usamos una nueva base de datos de producción mensual en 33 bloques de la Faja Petrolífera del Orinoco para estimar el efecto de las sanciones financieras y petroleras sobre la industria petrolera venezolana. Hallamos efectos económica y estadísticamente significativos que indican que en ausencia de sanciones, la producción de la Faja sería entre tres y cinco veces su nivel actual.

Sanctions and Oil Production: Evidence from Venezuela’s Orinoco Basin

We use the differential access to credit of oil firms in Venezuela’s Orinoco Basin to identify the economic effects of financial and oil sanctions on firm output.  Using a panel of monthly firm-level oil production from 2008-2020, we provide estimates showing that financial and oil sanctions led to large losses in oil production among firms which had access to international credit prior to sanctions.  The estimated effects explain around half of the output drop experienced in those firms since the adoption of sanctions, and argue that in the absence of sanctions, production in the Basin would be between three to five times its current level.

Reestructuración bajo incertidumbre radical: el caso de Argentina

El caso de Argentina es sintomático de una crisis de confianza, como lo explican los modelos de equilibrios múltiples de crisis de balanza de pagos. El marco de sostenibilidad de la deuda con el FMI debería ser lo suficientemente flexible como para permitir soluciones de reestructuración y mejoramiento del bienestar.

Reestructuring under Radical Uncertainty: The Case of Argentina

Argentina’s case is symptomatic of a confidence crisis as explained by multiple equilibria models of balance of payments crises. The IMF’s debt sustainability framework should be made flexible enough to allow for welfare-improving reprofiling solutions in such cases.