Author Archives: Francisco R. Rodríguez

On the implausibility of the benign sanctions hypothesis

Santos, Morales-Arilla and Partipilo Cornielles (2026) claim that in the absence of sanctions Venezuela’s rate of contraction would have accelerated by approximately 6 percentage points a year. Their projections imply an implausible 98% decline in GDP in a non-sanctions scenario. This would have caused Venezuela’s per capita GDP in the absence of sanctions to fallContinue reading “On the implausibility of the benign sanctions hypothesis”

The Role of Sanctions in Venezuela’s Collapse: A Critical Comment on Santos et al. (2026)

Santos, Morales and Partipilo Cornielles claim that the bulk of the decline in Venezuela’s income preceded the imposition of economic sanctions and that the rate at which the economy contracted did not accelerate after sanctions. Both claims are false. Even if they were true, they would support the authors’ conclusions only if one were toContinue reading “The Role of Sanctions in Venezuela’s Collapse: A Critical Comment on Santos et al. (2026)”

Identifying the effect of the US embargo on the Cuban economy: A comment on Bastos, Geloso, and Bologna Pavlik (2026)

Bastos, Geloso and Bologna Pavlik (2026) argue that the US embargo explains less than one-tenth of the difference in per capita income between Cuba and a counterfactual scenario in which the country did not follow socialist economic policies. We show that their results are driven by the use of an elasticity of income to tradeContinue reading “Identifying the effect of the US embargo on the Cuban economy: A comment on Bastos, Geloso, and Bologna Pavlik (2026)”

A Peace Prize That Brings Venezuela Closer to War

By throwing the moral authority of the prize behind an advocate of the use of force, the Nobel Committee’s decision makes a peaceful, negotiated solution to Venezuela’s conflict less likely. Last week, the Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded the 2025 Peace Prize to María Corina Machado—a leading figure in the country’s opposition to the authoritarian ruleContinue reading “A Peace Prize That Brings Venezuela Closer to War”

Un premio de la paz que acerca a Venezuela a la guerra

Al respaldar con el premio a quien ha abogado consistentemente por el uso de la fuerza, la decisión del Comité Nobel hace menos probable una solución pacífica y negociada al conflicto venezolano. La semana pasada, el Comité Noruego del Nobel otorgó el Premio Nobel de la Paz 2025 a María Corina Machado, una destacada dirigenteContinue reading “Un premio de la paz que acerca a Venezuela a la guerra”

Sanctions and Venezuelan Migration

This paper examines the potential impact of different US economic sanctions policies on Venezuelan migration flows. I consider three possible departures from the current status quo in which selected oil companies are permitted to conduct transactions with Venezuela’s state-owned oil sector: a return to maximum pressure, characterized by intensive use of secondary sanctions, a moreContinue reading “Sanctions and Venezuelan Migration”

Scorched Earth Politics and Venezuela’s Collapse

Between 2012 and 2020, Venezuela’s per capita income declined by 71%, the largest peacetime economic contraction documented in the Common Era. I estimate that the severing of the country’s links to global trade and financial markets explains 56% of this contraction. I propose an explanation of Venezuela’s economic collapse as a consequence of the incentivesContinue reading “Scorched Earth Politics and Venezuela’s Collapse”

Venezuela Negotiations: Light at the End of the Tunnel?

Wednesday, January 25, 2023. 12:00 a.m. – 1:30 p.m. The Forum SIE Complex, Denver University, Colorado. Watch on Youtube Speakers: Carolina Jimenez Sandoval President of the Latin American Office for WOLA Michael Penfold Global Fellow in the Latin America Program, Wilson Center Luis Vicente Leon President, Datanalisis Moderator: Francisco Rodriguez Director, Oil For Venezuela. RiceContinue reading “Venezuela Negotiations: Light at the End of the Tunnel?”

Conference on Venezuelan Politics: Quantifying Venezuela’s Destructive Conflict

Friday, October 18, 2024. 1:30 a.m. – 2:30 p.m. Chicago Booth Harper Center Room C05, University of Chicago, Illinois. Speakers: Francisco Rodriguez Director, Oil For Venezuela. Rice Family Professor Josef Korbel School, Denver University Osmel Manzano Adjunct Professor, Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University. Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University Chang-Tai HsiehContinue reading “Conference on Venezuelan Politics: Quantifying Venezuela’s Destructive Conflict”